Millennium Development Goals 2015…. 5 Years to Go…. Will we Do it?
In September 2000 world leaders met at the UN headquarters in New York to set out and agree funding for eight Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to be achieved by 2015, designed to eradicate or reduce world poverty and hunger, alongside improving social, educational and health levels for all. Last month, two thirds of the way through the program, they met again to see if things are on course.
Despite the spin - they are not. While significant progress overall has been made on all eight fronts the basic fact is that as per the criteria set, at least five of the goals will not be met and the best we can hope for with the other three is a ‘maybe’. The only unqualified success is access to clean water, which is just a part small item of MDG 7 on environmental goals.
Greatest progress has been made with MDG 1, reducing poverty and hunger, which was on track until the global financial crisis pushed it off the rails. While this is undeniably good news it is questionable if success here can truly be attributed to the UN program since the figures are largely the result of income growth in China and India, not international aid.
World leaders in New York have naturally accentuated the positive and downplayed the negative, declaring things are on track, while promising to put up more money for the run up to 2015. Bearing in mind that the developed world is still significantly light on the money initially promised to do the job in 2000, despite further financial re-affirmations at Gleneagles 2005, it remains to be seen if they really will come up with the necessary.
As usual, between promoters like UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, the confusion of the blogoshere and spoilers like Iran’s President Ahmadinejad and Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, it is hard to tell the wood from the trees. Here, culled from various press and institutional sources is a situation review as best I can establish:
MDG1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger The Goal: to halve by 2015 proportion people earning less than $1 a day and people suffering from hunger. Goal also calls for achievement of full, productive employment and decent work for all.
Progress so far: Consistent progress in reducing poverty has been made across Asia. China has halved its poverty rate. Poverty levels in India have remained stable, but the UN says the country is on target. Progress across Africa has been patchy. Ethiopia and Angola have halved poverty levels, but rates in Nigeria have increased. More than half of countries have made progress on reducing hunger, but levels have remained the same in 28 countries and increased in 24. Latin America has made strong progress in this area, as has SE Asia. India has not performed as well as expected.
Likely to be met? : UN is confident poverty levels will be halved, but the recent food crisis has pushed the hunger target off track.
MDG 2: Achieve universal primary education The Goal: Ensure all children, boys and girls, are able to attend and complete primary schooling.
Progress so far: Great strides have been made increasing school enrolments, with almost 90% of countries making progress. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa have made the biggest leaps, all but one of the top 10 performers found in the region. However, poverty continues to be a barrier to education. Some countries performing well on enrolment have high dropout rates among the poorest households, usually in rural areas.
Likely to be met? No. Despite major gains in enrolment, pace of progress is too slow to ensure all children complete primary school. High dropout rates are making the goal unachievable.
MDG 3: Promote gender equality and empower women The Goal: Eliminate gender disparity in all levels of education by 2015, based on the ratios of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education; increase the number of women in paid employment outside the agricultural sector and increase the number of female MPs.
Progress so far: Nearly all countries have improved parity between girls and boys in primary education. Sub-Saharan Africa has made significant gains, with Guinea and Ethiopia among the top performers in absolute terms. China has achieved gender parity in primary education and India has made significant progress. However, girls are still more likely to be out of school than boys in many countries and the gender gap remains wide in secondary education. The share of women employed outside agriculture is increasing, but very slowly. The number of female MPs has increased from 11% in 1995 to 19% in 2010.
Likely to be met? No, unless the pace of progress increases dramatically
MDG 4: Reduce child mortality The Goal? Reduce by two-thirds under-five mortality rate and increase the number of one-year-olds immunised against measles.
Progress so far: Steady progress made reducing child deaths. Mortality rate dropped from 100 deaths per 1,000 in 1990 to 72 in 2008. Globally, this means the number of under-fives dying has fallen from 12.5 million to 8.8 million. The greatest progress has been made in some of the world’s poorest countries. Immunisation coverage has increased, but access to vaccines is often dependent on social and economic factors. Children from poorer, rural households are less likely to be immunised. Immunisation rates have declined in China & Vietnam, while they have doubled in Cambodia.
Likely to be met? Doubtful. The pace of progress is too slow to reach the target, and gains made in immunisation will be lost without a renewed funding commitment.
MDG 5: Improve maternal mortality The Goal: Reduce by three-quarters maternal mortality rate and achieve universal access to reproductive healthcare.
Progress so far: Under-reporting makes it difficult to accurately assess. Progress varies widely across countries. With the exception of North Africa and parts of Asia, progress has been slow. However, in about one-third of developing countries, skilled health workers now attend 95% of all births, and nearly 20% have almost universal access. Birth attendance is still low in countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, though. The urban-rural gap in antenatal care has narrowed slightly. Access and use of contraception is still lowest among women from poor households.
Likely to be met? No. Progress is too slow to hit the target in time.
MDG 6: Combat HIV/Aids, malaria and other diseases The Goal: Halt and begin to reverse the spread of HIV/Aids, malaria and other major diseases, and ensure universal access to treatment for HIV/Aids.
Progress so far: Progress on this goal has been slow and mixed. Overall, 26% of countries have seen infection rates drop, while 41% have recorded no change. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest HIV infection rates in the world, but, 27 of the countries that have reduced rates, 21 are found in the region. Rates have increased in Russia. Honduras is the only Latin American country to have reduced infections. Almost 85% of countries have increased the proportion of people with access to treatment, but the rate of infection is outstripping supply. Progress has been made on reducing malaria.
Likely to be met? Targets for HIV infection rates and treatment won’t be met, although there are indications the latter could be reached by 2020. The target on malaria could be reached with more funding.
MDG 7: Ensure environmental sustainability The Goal: Ensure government policies include sustainable development, reverse loss of environmental resources and biodiversity, halve the number of people with no access to clean water and sanitation and improve the lives of slum dwellers.
Progress so far: Vast majority of countries have improved access to clean water. India and China have already met the target. The rate of deforestation is declining, but levels are still high. CO2 emissions have dipped in recent years, but they are projected to rise again. Governments have talked about their commitment to tackling climate change, but the 2009 Copenhagen conference failed to produce a significant agreement to move forward. While the share of the urban population living in slums has reduced, in absolute terms the number of slum dwellers has grown.
Likely to be met? Improved access to clean water is the only target expected to be achieved.
MDG 8: Develop a global partnership for development The Goal: to address the needs of the least developed countries, improve trading and financial systems, tackle debt, work with pharmaceutical countries to improve access to cheap drugs in developing countries and spread the use of new technology.
Progress so far: Debt levels have dropped and 40 countries are now eligible for debt relief under the heavily indebted poor countries initiative. Aid levels continue to rise, but pledges made by the world’s wealthiest nations in 2005 have still to be fulfilled. Developing countries now have greater access to global markets since tariffs were reduced under the ‘most favoured nation’ initiative, but the financial crisis and the drop in world prices hit the least developed countries the hardest. By the end of 2008, 23% of the world’s population had access to the internet.
Likely to be met? Improvements in each area are expected to continue until 2015, but the question will be whether they have any real impact on the lives of the world’s poorest.
Guarded Optimism?
If, as seems likely, we are not on track to meet the MDG goals we are nevertheless making substantial progress across the board. The problem in meeting the goals by set for 2015 is not just about money. Money, even if the rich world comes up with it only addresses the symptoms, not the fundamental causes. And as we have seen, economic growth in the developing world lifts all boats - at least statistically. The problem with that is the world’s really poor can still be left behind. Progress on women’s health, education and equality has been shown to be another major factor in lifting all MDG goals. Against that, progress on sustainability is dependent on world action against global warming and that remains very much in question.
