70,000 Balinese volcano evacuees had no need to leave, Indonesia says
More than half the 140,000 Balinese who have fled to shelters from a rumbling volcano had no need to evacuate and should return home, Indonesian authorities have said. Unnerved by daily tremors, and uncertain about the exact border of the danger zone – between 9-12km from the summit of Mt Agung – tens of thousands more than necessary have fled. “Only people from 27 villages must evacuate,” said Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, from Indonesia’s national disaster mitigation agency, referring to the communities inside the unsafe zone. “The rest can go home. They can either go home independently or with the help of the government.”
As Mt Agung continues to rumble, several Balinese priests have courted controversy in recent days after they hiked to Agung’s crater. One priest, Mangku Mokoh, posted photos and a video from the volcano’s steaming peak, footage of which has gone viral on social media. Responses showed some were in awe, applauding his audacity, while others criticised Mangku Mokoh for his recklessness and potentially encouraging others to do the same. The alert status of Mt Agung was raised to the maximum danger level of 4 after its seismic activity rose to the highest ever recorded levels.
The last time Agung erupted was more than half a century ago in 1963, when it killed more than 1,000 people. Fearing it will again blow, tens of thousands of Balinese have sought shelter in village halls and temples, some sleeping on rough concrete with limited sanitation facilities. By day they venture into the danger zone, to check their on their livestock and homes. Each morning for the past week, mountain guide Komang Sabda, 34, has returned to his home 1.5km from Agung’s summit, which is the highest point on Bali.
“I have to go check on my flowers,” he says, reaching for his phone to show a photo of his small field of golden marigolds. Unable to lead hikers up the mountain now, Sabda hopes he will still be able to make money by harvesting his marigolds, the petals of which are used in canang – daily Balinese offerings made from banana leaves.
No one can say for certain if and when Mt Agung might erupt but volcanologists say the risk has not gone down. “Agung is still showing high numbers of seismicity and yesterday we had 794 volcanic earthquakes,” said Devy Kamil Syahbana, a seismologist from Indonesia’s volcanology centre, on Sunday. “It is not accelerating but it is on the same level. For example, three days ago you had 800 events [earthquakes] and then now you have almost 800 events. It is zero acceleration but still a high level of seismicity.” The amplitude of the quakes has decreased but Syahbana said that did not indicate the fracturing or movement of magma within Mt Agung had dropped.
At the same time the number of shallow volcanic tremors has risen. In the event of an eruption, Indonesian authorities have prepared 10 regional airports should flights need to be diverted from Bali’s Ngurah international airport due to volcanic ash flows. The national disaster mitigation agency has installed six warning sirens that will be heard for two kilometres in the event of an eruption, and warning signs at 54 points across the danger zone telling people not to enter.
The agency has also warned local communities of the possible dangers, including hot clouds with a temperature of between 600-800C that might speed down Agung’s slope at up to 300kmh in the event of an eruption. [The Guardian October 1, 2017]
Once tremors detected, Bali volcano can erupt within hours: Volcanologist
Prince Tjokorda Raka Putra can feel a message is coming from the god of Bali’s sacred mountain, Gunung Agung. The last time he saw one was 54 years ago, on Feb 19, 1963. As witnessed by him and the people in Bali, the message was delivered with thick smoke, rocks and lava flying out of Mont Agung’s pinnacle. “It’s like an atomic bomb atop the mountain’s peak. The plume rose very high, a massive amount of grey smoke,” the prince told Channel NewsAsia inside his palace in Klungkung. “There were dust and sandstorms every day. Rocks rained down from the sky and ashes fell all over Bali.” The eruption of Mount Agung in 1963 is one of the largest and most destructive in Indonesian history. It lasted for nearly a year, devastated countless villages and killed more than 1,100 people.
Fast forward to September 2017, the same thing could happen again, and probably soon. Volcanologists said it could only be a matter of hours, days or longer for the sacred mountain to blow. Many signs are pointing towards an irregular magma movement inside the volcanic edifice, as the hot fluid tries to reach the surface. Since its previous eruption until recently, Mount Agung had reported zero volcanic earthquakes.
Last week, however, more than 700 incidents were detected in one day, with the strongest magnitude measuring 4.3 on the Richter scale. Such frequency and force is alarming for seismologists, as it has taken much less for other volcanoes to erupt. “More than 700 earthquakes per day is already very high. If the number is increasing, it will create continued tremors. Then it may be a matter of hours before the eruption,” said Dr Devy Kamil Syahbana from the Centre for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation.
Besides the frequent quakes, his team has also detected the inflation of Mount Agung. They have also recorded significant changes on the crater’s surface. Hotspots are spreading everywhere, while cracks on the summit continue to emit white steam clouds, which have been intensifying over time. Citing the accumulative magnitudes of the earthquakes, Dr Syahbana said the volume of Mount Agung’s intruded magma – the cause of volcanic earthquakes – is estimated at 15 million cubic metres (m3). Statistics show that if the volume of such magma goes above 6 million m3, an eruption is likely. “Global statistics say that’s 90 per cent of volcanoes. We still have 10 per cent chance that we won’t have the eruption. Of course, we hope for the best. But we need to prepare for the worst,” Dr Syahbana said. Next to him, a seismograph was picking up a lot of vibration on Mount Agung. The rolling paper was full of many long, black lines indicating significant magnitudes. “Before, it was just a straight line every day.”
More than 75,000 people have been evacuated from hazard-prone areas within a 12km radius of the active volcano. The decision was made based on the size of the affected area more than half a century ago. Between 1963 and 1964, about 280 million m3 of magma was ejected from Mount Agung. The lava flew as far as 14km to the north and 12km to the south, as well as southeast. Based on the government’s assessment, it is likely that if the eruption takes place again, it would be small at first. “But it’s possible also that it’d be followed by harder eruptions,” Dr Syahbana added.
While the government is busy with its mitigation plan, many residents in Hindu-majority Bali prepare themselves for the uncertain future with faith in the god of Agung. “We can only keep praying for strength to face what the god wills,” said Gusti Mangku Paruna Kubayan, a priest from Bali’s “Mother of Temple”, Pura Besakih. The temple complex was badly damaged by the 1963 eruption, given its location on the southwestern slope of Mount Agung. Based on Prince Tjokorda Raka’s account, the second eruption that year was bigger than the first, and destroyed all the shrines in the complex.
Still, the magnitude of destruction in the 60s did not stop the priest from performing his act of faith. The 52-year-old insisted on re-entering the sacred complex last week to perform a ritual, which he believes matters more than being sheltered inside Banjar Pekandelan Klod Temple with other evacuees. Like many Balinese, the priest believes the god of Agung will let him know when the eruption is imminent.
“The temple has three sacred holes,” he said. “One of them is believed to connect with the crater of Mount Agung. In 1963, smoke appeared there a few days before the eruption.” He added: “Based on my faith, there will be a sign from the god if Mount Agung erupts.” For volcanologists such as Dr Syahbana, however, there have already been plenty of signs. “The probability of eruption at the moment is high. Still, this probability may change at any time. It depends on what the volcano wants.”. [Channel NewsAsia October 2, 2017]
Bali’s rumbling volcano spurs more evacuations and travel warnings
As Bali’s Mt Agung volcano continues to rumble ominously, the locals are blamingtourists for angering the ancient mountain. A local priest reportedly said Mount Agung is wrathful because “bule” (white people) had sex and menstruated on the mountain. “The climbers did that,” he said. Despite the warnings, Australian tourists on holiday in Bali say they are not worried and not trying to rush home to beat an eruption. But experts still cannot predict when the mountain will erupt. It is more than 70km from the tourist hot spots of Kuta and Seminyak.
While many Australian tourists remain unaffected by the impending eruption, some have spoken of being woken in the middle of the night to evacuate their hotels. Rory Eastick from Newcastle said he was woken by his Indonesian brother-in-law at 11.30pm and told to leave his hotel in Tulamben, on the northeast coast of Bali, immediately. “It was quite a worrying moment because it was at that time we realised everyone in our hotel had already left,” he said. “Family staying in another hotel were kicked out and made to find their own way to safety.” Monique Correia from Perth said she was also told to pack her things and evacuate. “The lady from my hotel has just told us to all pack our stuff and evacuate and drive back to Kuta now,” she said.
However, other tourists are feeling more relaxed about the situation. David and Kellie Smith, from Redhead in Newcastle, are on their first Bali holiday with their two daughters and say they are not concerned by the possibility of Mt Agung erupting. They have spoken a lot with locals who say the most concern rests with the villagers closest to the mountain. Like many Australians spoken to yesterday by News Corp Australia atSeminyak and Legian, their travel insurance appears sound, should the volcano erupt. “We are all covered. I have spoken to our travel agent and she said as soon as she gets notice (of any problems) she will email me,” Ms Smith said, adding that they monitor social media for developments. “If the locals are not panicked, we are not too worried at the moment.” The family arrived in Bali on September 16 just as Mt Agung was rumbling into action and the next day took a day trip, with a guide and driver, to Amed where they had spectacular views of Mt Agung before it was on alert. “Honestly, we haven’t been too worried. We have had people ringing us (to find out what’s going on) but from what I understand there is not too much drama,” Mr Smith said. They are due to return home on Saturday.
Melbourne man Brett McKenzie was at the Double Six beach yesterday while his three sons, twins Ryan and Jackson, 13, and Bailey, 11, had a surf lesson. The family arrived in Bali on Sunday and Mr McKenzie said he and his wife had no reservations about coming, knowing that Mt Agung was stirring. He said they had thoroughly checked the DFAT Smartraveller advice before coming and had travel insurance. “It is one of those things, it is a force of nature, unavoidable. If we have to stay longer (if the airport closes) we have to stay longer,” Mr McKenzie said. It was about taking personal responsibility and being aware of risks, taking note of the expert warnings. “Our concern is more with the local Balinese people. These people are subsistence farmers … in the villages and nearby surroundings and their livelihoods are at risk. That’s where our concern comes from, more than ourselves,” he said.
Mr McKenzie said due care was needed to avoid any risks, adding it was important to take responsibility for yourself, should Mt Agung erupt. “I think one thing we are aware of is the unpredictability of the volcano,” he said. He said while his family would be interested to see the volcano itself, they were concerned not to be traipsing up the mountain just to take a look with massive relief efforts underway. “You don’t want thousands of people running up there making it difficult for them,” he said. Throughout the day on Wednesday hundreds of earthquakes were recorded within Mt Agung. Between 6am and 12 noon, there were 521 earthquakes. Bali’s Governor Made Pastika has urged Australians that Bali is safe despite the looming eruption of Mt Agung volcano. [News Corp Australia September 28, 2017]
‘It’s been 100 days’: Bali escapee Shaun Davidson
Bali escapee Shaun Davidson is celebrating 100 days on the run from police. The Australian-born former inmate broke out of notorious Kerobokan prison in June with only six-weeks left on his sentence, meaning he would have walked free from jail now if he had served out his time. But he has since continued to taunt police while on the run by posting updated to Facebook. ‘Just realised iits (sic) been 100 days,’ Davidson wrote on Facebook, adding a number of clapping emojis.
And it seems he has the support from a number of followers on social media. ‘Keep going mate love from Holland,’ wrote one Facebook user. ‘You must be missing your family, you’re strong man… keep doing what you’re doing,’ said another. After tunneling out of the overcrowded prison on June 19 with three other inmates, only Davidson and one other inmate remain on the run after two escapees were caught days after.
The fugitive has continued to taunt police by creating his own wanted posters offering a reward, proving popular with his thousands of followers. His fans have previously taken to Facebook to tell Davidson he is ‘living the dream’ and that he is ‘so entertaining’ they ‘hope it lasts forever’. Since escaping jail Davidson has claimed to be everywhere from The Netherlands to Thailand and a cafe in theCaribbean. ‘Dinner time I’m starving,’ he wrote alongside the check-in at Cafe Luna Barbados. [Daily Mail September 28, 2017]
Three volcanoes around Pacific Rim on brink of major eruptions
Volcanoes in Mexico, Indonesia and Vanuatu are at varying levels of imminent eruptions having belched smoke, ash and red-hot rocks, covering villages in ash and forcing hundreds of thousands to evacuate. Popocatepetl volcano near Mexico City was the latest to show life on Wednesday (Thursday NZ Time), heightening the anxieties of Mexicans still shaken by last week’s powerful earthquake that killed hundreds and severely damaged thousands of buildings.
Meanwhile, the exodus from a menacing volcano on the Indonesian tourist island of Bali is nearing 100,000 people, a disaster official said on Wednesday, as hundreds of tremors from the mountain were recorded daily. In the Pacific island of Vanuatu, a rumbling, belching volcano that’s threatening to blow has forced more than 7000 people to flee their homes by Wednesday. [Stuff September 28, 2017]